A little too Late

Hall of Fame

Five years ago there were three players who were definite first ballot hall of famers in 2007, now there are only two. Tony Gwynn and Cal Ripkin Jr. are beyond reproach, they represent two of the greatest players to ever play their respective position and the cream of the crop for this generation of baseball players. Both of these players are over 3000 hits and if they don’t make the hall this year there is something serious wrong with the voters, but there is no way this will be an issue.
Mark McGwire is the most interesting players on the ballot since, only a few years ago he was a definite first ballot hall of famer. He is most famous for his monster homers. His 583 home runs are the seventh most all time, and once held the single season homer record at 70. He led the league in homers four times while being in the top 10, ten times. Big Mac hit a home run every 10.6 at bats which is the best ratio ever. His career OPS is the thirteen best all time. He won a ROY award and a gold glove, and finished second in the MVP vote once. If it wasn’t for the steroids issue, there is not doubt in my mind that McGwire would be a first ballot hall of famer. Since steroids were so prevalent in the game and the baseball administration was really an enabler at the steroids problem, I find it hard to hold it against McGwire, especially since it wasn’t illegal at the time and there is no real proof he took them.
There are three other players who would get my vote this year. Goose Gossage, Andre Dawson, and Bert Blyleven. Now that Sutter is in there is no doubt that Gossage should be in, since his numbers stack up very comparably. Dawson has the numbers, over 1500 RBIs, over 430 homers, 1 MVP and 2 second place finishes, a rookie of the year, and over 300 stolen bases. He was the dominate player in the league for too many years not to get in. Same with Blyleven, he has 287 wins for mostly bad team and his 3701 strikeouts is fifth all time. He never won a Cy-Young but finished top 10 four times and he is ninth of the career shutout list.

Whats Next

Now that Vernon Wells resigned with the Blue Jays ever single player the Phillies have targeted this off-season are with other teams. So now we have to ask who is going to protect Ryan Howard next season. The external options are really limited but there are a few internal options.

Internal

As I wrote about before, batting Rolling fifth would be a good idea. He has proved to be a very effective hitter and his style is more effective later in a lineup. His strengths are not patience and on-base and his power numbers are going up every year. This is the best internal option, especially since it allows Burrell to bat lower with much less pressure.

The other internal option is to bat Burrell fifth and hope he finally learns to deal with the pressure and puts up in the clutch. The good thing is that year in and year out, he hits 25-30 homers with 100 plus RBIs. If he can ever get back to his 2002 style he could still be an effective fifth hitter.

External

The free pool is completely bare; the only real power hitters left are Aubrey Huff and Shea Hillenbrand. Neither of them are very good fits for this team, they both play third as their primary position and the Phils just signed Wes Helms to play that position. Both could probably play the outfield but that would involve actually being able to trade Burrell.

Trades

The big news out of the Phils camp is that they jut swung a trade for Freddy Garcia. Since they struck out in the big hitters market they seem to be intent on improving the starting rotation. In the last few weeks we’ve added Garcia and Eaton, vastly improving the rotation.
Garcia, who went 17-9 with a 4.53 ERA, will step in as one of the top starters and will take some of the pressure off of Hamels and Myers. Those three guys are all capable of being a one starter for many teams, if they can overcome Citizen’s Bank Park. Garcia’s numbers shouldn’t drop too much since he’ll get a boost moving at NL but playing in this park should hurt a little. So for the time being we’ll say it’ll cancel out.

Now we come to the interesting part, since all we had to lose to get Garcia was Gavin Floyd and a prospect and he was suppose to start in AAA anyhow, we now have a surplus of pitchers. It looks like they are going to try to move Jon Lieber.

I don’t know if it’s possible but they should seriously look into trading for Vernon Wells, since he is the only heavy hitter that really makes sense for the Phillies. They are already trying to Aaron Rowand and its possible packing him with some of the better prospects and maybe Lieber that it could be enough to get Vernon. I know that’s a long shot but it worth at least giving it a shot.

There is another option providing that they get someone outside the organization to protect Howard. They could bat Rollins in the five-hole, he is much better suited to bat fifth anyhow. He’s much more of a free swinger and he is developing a power stroke. Last year he hit .277 with 25 homers and 83 RBI out of the leadoff spot, not to shabby. His OBP of .334 is lower then one would want from their leadoff hitter, so the only thing that suits him to leadoff is his speed.

Fultz

The Phils made a big mistake today by not offering Aaron Fultz a new contract or at least offering him arbitration. Fultz has been an effective reliever for the last few years, and would have been a big asset to the ailing bullpen. In 2005 he went 4-0, with a 2.24 ERA in 62 games and last year he went 3-1, with a 4.54, in 66 games. He is also very effective against lefties, holding them to .242 average over the last three years.
It appears that the plan is to use Matt Smith as the lefty handed specialist next year but given the lack of left handed relief pitching the exploding market for pitching, it seems to be that it would have been wise to keep Fultz around. Even if the Phils didn’t keep him, Fultz is a type A free agent, so just by offering arbitration they could get a first round pick in compensation.
While the financial terms are not available yet it appears that he is a bargain in comparison to some of the signings this year.

Setup Men

The Phils just pulled an offer to Joe Borowski. Here's to hoping that the Phils can get back on this deal, Borowski would be a good fit for the team. He isn't an overpowering pitcher but he would be an able 8th inning guy and could fill the closer roll if Gordon gets hurt again.

The problem seems to be his shoulder, so it does seem wise not to invest a multi year deal in his 35 year old arm. At least make him one of those vesting deals, so if he manages to hurt himself again we don't need to keep him.
Joe had himself a closer worthy season last year, finishing with 33 saves and an ERA of 3.75 for the Marlins. He compares pretty favorably with Tom Gordon's 34 saves and an ERA of 3.34. Since Gordon enters the season at the ripe old age of 39, so he is pretty high risk for injury.

Tragically Ryan Madson showed he doesn't have the make up to be a closer but he is a huge asset to the team as a setup/relief pitcher. Since the bullpen is a huge weekness for the Phils, its nice to see them attempting to address the problems.

Adam Eaton

The Phils seem to have gone into full panic mode and now are just throwing money at anyone they can find. The Phils lost out on their main goal of getting a big time power threat, from the free agent pool, to protect Ryan Howard. Since the trade market is pretty barren in that respect the Phils have retooled their efforts towards their pitching staff. All the best free agent pitchers won't even look at the home run haven of Philly, they have to look past Zito and Schmidt and to the second tier pitchers. Again the Phils first option, of keeping Randy Wolf, bolted for the Dodgers so enter ...

Realistically Eaton isn't going to fix any of Philly's problems but it should be a solid 3-5 starter for this team. He never really panned out, he was an early first round pick, but has never won more than 11 games, had an ERA lower than 4.08, or pitched more than 130 innings in two years. When it comes down to it hes an good upside pitcher who can't stay healthy. One more thing, he has a slight tendency to be a fly ball pitcher and is going to park that eats fall ball pitchers for lunch.
Alright so we over payed but the Phils now have a solid rotation

1. Cole Hamels 9-8 4.08

2. Bret Myers 12-7 3.91

3. John Lieber 9-11 4.93

4. Jamie Moyer 11-14 4.30

5. Adam Eaton 7-4 5.12

If they all pitch the way they are capable of it could be a decent season. All we need is for Hamels to continue to develop, Moyer continues to defy time, Myers stays out of trouble, and Eaton stays healthy.